Thursday, May 13, 2010

Me as a Fund manager

Buy dollar:- I dont know what the definition of short term is. But at least for 10-2 years i am bullish ON Dollar and the reason is quite simple and that is i dont find any currency which can replace dollar.. till the time trading among countries would be done in dollar, U.S. can print dollars as and when he wants. and the reason is simple .. most of the countries want to keep a huge chunk of dollar. China reserve is around 1.2 trillion dollar and most of the part is in dollar and same goes with india. India has around 283 billion dollar reserve and most of the part is in dollar . India will definitely try to replicate china and will try to build up its reserve in dollar . The reserve would be in dollar form . so there would be a huge demand of dollar ... so once again i want to reiterate that till the time, Trade currency is dollar , No one can stop dollar . and in near future i dont find any replacement currency ... u give me any replacement currency , i would be short on dollar.. but impossible to find

Buy Gold:- Sorry buddy , i m not interested in gold.. because what i believe in 8 year boom-bust cycle. i Have seen the bust , now its time for boom . i am agree that in last decade gold has always given positive return but i dont believe in return ..i believe in relative return and maximum return ( dont believe in optimum return also )..so atleast for 6-7 years i will be bullish on equity and the time when equity market will be overheated ( near around 6-7 years), i will move to gold.. well my strategy would be like this.. first invest in equity market and wait for 5-6 years..( as u can not time the market ) then dilute your equity position and move to gold. because Boom- bust cycle is inevitable. and as u have said that gold and equity market are inversely co-related, i will invest my money in gold buring bust phase .

Long on CHINA:- Sorry buddy, again i m huge fan of china in spite of being an indian .well.. what makes china differ from other countries is its huge current account surplus . good thing in current account surplus is that a country needs not to pay it back .It is not like Debt or FII.. once money is in my country . no one can take it back. So china's growth is based on its current account surplus while Dubai growth was based on Debt . So when foreign institutions realised that something wrong was happening with Dubai , they started redemption but same cannot be done with china . It is china's money and it will be with china . Yes .. property market is bubbling but i think it wont make any impact .. only money will change the direction but it will be with china.. and reason is simple .Till the time china maintains its current account surplus . Nothing bad can happen with china .

India :- Long on India ..never try to time the market .. whenever u have money .. invest in equity market at least for 5-6 years then ready for one more bust

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