Last sunday when i was chatting with my brother, he told me how smartly he lost his 400 Rs because of a live TV serial. Well.. Incident went like this
Now a days there are so many live programs are being telecasted on TV in which we are suppose to identify a celebrity’s face. If you know the celebrity, you need to call on a phone no. The celebrity's face is generally so simple that even my nephew can recognise it. well... these kind of serials are telecasted particularly in night. I don’t know why these kind of serials are telecasted after mid night but as
only half cracked mind people watch the TV after mid night .So it will be quite easy to make them fool.
Whatever is the reason, i don’t know what my brother was doing till mid night ( as he is not half cracked ) but he saw one of these serials. The celebrity's face was very familiar ( it was Sachin Tendulkar ) so in pursuit of being rich in a small span of time . He dialed the given phone name and thought that he was going to be rich . But all his imagination went on a toss when even after half an hour no
body picked up his call. But after doing all financial calculation in his mind or in Excel sheet wherever, he realised that the cost of making a call is nothing in front of winning 1 lac Rs. He was seeing the episode live and calls were coming continuously,but no one was able to recognise the face. ( Can you beleive it ) well my brother was on cloud no 9 as he knew the answer but suddenly his call got disconnected after 40 min because of insufficient amount. (thank god ..he had a prepaid connection ) but he relaised later that he had already spent Rs400. So what went wrong . why People were not able to recongise even Sachin tendulkar 's face and why my brother couldn’t get a chance?.
I didnt think about these questions till yesterday . But yesterday when i became half cracked and was not feeling sleepy. i thought of switching on my TV. Well, the same kind of TV serial was on screen and i was supposed to identify a celebrity's face. It was Amir Khan and the face was only mildly blurred. I though since Mei pachvi class se tej hu , it would be wiser if i ask someone to recognise the face who
is not smarter than Pachvi pass. so i asked my 6 years old Nephew to recongnise the face ( he was also watching the same channel with me as his summer vacation is on and he has also become half cracked ).Even he recongnised the face easily . But people who were calling to the serial were not able to recognise the face. Why? Is my 6th year old Nephew is smarter than those people. I bet he is not .. Sorry sister but my nephew is not so smart. So why were people not able to give the right answer. Something wrong was happening . But what?? With best of my understanding what i figured out is like this No one gets a chance to speak. The calls are being made by their own people. Just to Show that people are making calls and are not able to give right answer encourages us to call. The call rate of these type of calls is quite high sometime more then rs 7/ Min. So whenever a aam Nagarik makes a call, his phone would always be on hold ( we all know how to make a phone engaged ) . The caller would see as people are making calls to the programe so his call is on hold . But the people who are making calls are not aam Nagrik , these are their own people .
So A aam nagrik always waits for his No. which never comes .But do u know how do they make revenue? simple to answere.. isnt it ???
Thursday, May 27, 2010
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Biased Financial Gurus
Before writing anything , i want to make one thing clear that today's blog can hurt t some people's emotions . Especially the people who dont want to read anything negative about their so called "Guru", as now a days there are so many kind of gurus like marketing guru, finance guru, this guru , that guru and they feel proud by following these gurus without giving a second that they could be wrong . One thing that amaze me about my country is that it unintensionally sets the examples for other countries. For Example , recently a religious guru, hailed from Karnataka was in news. Thousands of people used to follow him blindly and it was considered to be matter of pride that if we follow the guru, we would be able to achieve Moksha and even in our so called civil society , it is considered to be matter of proud if some one follows a guru. Now a days it has become social status that which guru someone follows. I was surprised last Saturday when i went to a party with my mother and someone asked from my mother which guru she follows. it is like which car she maintains or where is her appartment . It impacted my Mother so much that finally she made her to make someone her guru. Well.. Guru needs to be prominent one and he should always be lime light , Moreover if you are able to have some snaps with the guru, then what to say . But one thing we should not take for granted that gurus don’t come for free. you need to pay hefty sum to get these gurus otherwise u will not be allowed to come near to these gurus. Every guru has his own rate and the more prominent a guru is , the higher would be his rate. But once you are able to pay said amount then you will gain unbelievable respect in the society.
Well.. coming back to the topic people were following this guru blindly and latter they realised that the guru which they all were following himself doent know whether he is man or woman. Even police was confused where he should put this guru so they found out a solution that the guru should be kept in a isolated cell. So what is the learning from this example? well .. the learning is that we should not follow a guru blindly and to give this learning to the world , India sacrificed his one prominent guru.( who knows whether government of India paid some money to the guru). well.. India is always known for its sacrifice.
What made me write all this is that Now a days So many articles related to Greece and EU are being published in news papers. One thing which is quite interesting is that whenever an American’s writer writes his view about Greece or EU, he always finds some problem with European union and tries to emphasis that there is no tomorrow for European union and the time has come to disintegrate it. Among these writers some are very prominent one and considered to be financial gurus by some people. Well ...the situation was quite opposite two year before when USA was in turmoil and the writers hailed from Europe used to say that USA would not longer be a super power.
The situation is no longer limited to USA and EU. if we analyse the Indian economists 's view about china , we will find that even though China has achieved so much in less than two decade, they always find some problem with china and the same is true with china's economists. They never see good thing about India.
Now what i want to convey is that our so called financial gurus or economists are biased toward their own country . well being proudy about own country is one thing and Spreading knowledge is another thing . Knowledge should not be biased and these so financial grurs should not forget that the people who admire them try to learn from their Ideas and it is their duty to spread right knowledge because an Idea can change someone's life
Well.. coming back to the topic people were following this guru blindly and latter they realised that the guru which they all were following himself doent know whether he is man or woman. Even police was confused where he should put this guru so they found out a solution that the guru should be kept in a isolated cell. So what is the learning from this example? well .. the learning is that we should not follow a guru blindly and to give this learning to the world , India sacrificed his one prominent guru.( who knows whether government of India paid some money to the guru). well.. India is always known for its sacrifice.
What made me write all this is that Now a days So many articles related to Greece and EU are being published in news papers. One thing which is quite interesting is that whenever an American’s writer writes his view about Greece or EU, he always finds some problem with European union and tries to emphasis that there is no tomorrow for European union and the time has come to disintegrate it. Among these writers some are very prominent one and considered to be financial gurus by some people. Well ...the situation was quite opposite two year before when USA was in turmoil and the writers hailed from Europe used to say that USA would not longer be a super power.
The situation is no longer limited to USA and EU. if we analyse the Indian economists 's view about china , we will find that even though China has achieved so much in less than two decade, they always find some problem with china and the same is true with china's economists. They never see good thing about India.
Now what i want to convey is that our so called financial gurus or economists are biased toward their own country . well being proudy about own country is one thing and Spreading knowledge is another thing . Knowledge should not be biased and these so financial grurs should not forget that the people who admire them try to learn from their Ideas and it is their duty to spread right knowledge because an Idea can change someone's life
Thursday, May 13, 2010
Me as a Fund manager
Buy dollar:- I dont know what the definition of short term is. But at least for 10-2 years i am bullish ON Dollar and the reason is quite simple and that is i dont find any currency which can replace dollar.. till the time trading among countries would be done in dollar, U.S. can print dollars as and when he wants. and the reason is simple .. most of the countries want to keep a huge chunk of dollar. China reserve is around 1.2 trillion dollar and most of the part is in dollar and same goes with india. India has around 283 billion dollar reserve and most of the part is in dollar . India will definitely try to replicate china and will try to build up its reserve in dollar . The reserve would be in dollar form . so there would be a huge demand of dollar ... so once again i want to reiterate that till the time, Trade currency is dollar , No one can stop dollar . and in near future i dont find any replacement currency ... u give me any replacement currency , i would be short on dollar.. but impossible to find
Buy Gold:- Sorry buddy , i m not interested in gold.. because what i believe in 8 year boom-bust cycle. i Have seen the bust , now its time for boom . i am agree that in last decade gold has always given positive return but i dont believe in return ..i believe in relative return and maximum return ( dont believe in optimum return also )..so atleast for 6-7 years i will be bullish on equity and the time when equity market will be overheated ( near around 6-7 years), i will move to gold.. well my strategy would be like this.. first invest in equity market and wait for 5-6 years..( as u can not time the market ) then dilute your equity position and move to gold. because Boom- bust cycle is inevitable. and as u have said that gold and equity market are inversely co-related, i will invest my money in gold buring bust phase .
Long on CHINA:- Sorry buddy, again i m huge fan of china in spite of being an indian .well.. what makes china differ from other countries is its huge current account surplus . good thing in current account surplus is that a country needs not to pay it back .It is not like Debt or FII.. once money is in my country . no one can take it back. So china's growth is based on its current account surplus while Dubai growth was based on Debt . So when foreign institutions realised that something wrong was happening with Dubai , they started redemption but same cannot be done with china . It is china's money and it will be with china . Yes .. property market is bubbling but i think it wont make any impact .. only money will change the direction but it will be with china.. and reason is simple .Till the time china maintains its current account surplus . Nothing bad can happen with china .
India :- Long on India ..never try to time the market .. whenever u have money .. invest in equity market at least for 5-6 years then ready for one more bust
Buy Gold:- Sorry buddy , i m not interested in gold.. because what i believe in 8 year boom-bust cycle. i Have seen the bust , now its time for boom . i am agree that in last decade gold has always given positive return but i dont believe in return ..i believe in relative return and maximum return ( dont believe in optimum return also )..so atleast for 6-7 years i will be bullish on equity and the time when equity market will be overheated ( near around 6-7 years), i will move to gold.. well my strategy would be like this.. first invest in equity market and wait for 5-6 years..( as u can not time the market ) then dilute your equity position and move to gold. because Boom- bust cycle is inevitable. and as u have said that gold and equity market are inversely co-related, i will invest my money in gold buring bust phase .
Long on CHINA:- Sorry buddy, again i m huge fan of china in spite of being an indian .well.. what makes china differ from other countries is its huge current account surplus . good thing in current account surplus is that a country needs not to pay it back .It is not like Debt or FII.. once money is in my country . no one can take it back. So china's growth is based on its current account surplus while Dubai growth was based on Debt . So when foreign institutions realised that something wrong was happening with Dubai , they started redemption but same cannot be done with china . It is china's money and it will be with china . Yes .. property market is bubbling but i think it wont make any impact .. only money will change the direction but it will be with china.. and reason is simple .Till the time china maintains its current account surplus . Nothing bad can happen with china .
India :- Long on India ..never try to time the market .. whenever u have money .. invest in equity market at least for 5-6 years then ready for one more bust
Trading Through FM
This is an idea basically for metro cities or where FMs are available. we all know that FM has become quite popular in most of the metro cities and people are quite addicted ( interested) to it . But one thing is common in all FM stations and that is all the FMs broadcast only songs ( though in different languages )... well it is true that people want to listen songs in their free time or while travelling . But the adverse part of this situation is that people are not bothered about any particular FM or in marketing term they are not brand conscious. but i am surprised whether there is only single use of FM or are we limiting the scope of FM. why can’t we use FM in some other way? while analyzing the different ways , i am zeroed down to one of the most useful way of using FM which i find it interesting and think that there is a vast scope of it .
I want to use FM for trading . We have seen that as Indian economy is growing, more and more people are getting involved in trading . But main problem in trading is that we need to have continue access to the market price of particular script and it is impossible for a working class professional. Basically as on today there are only two popular sources are available to know the share price of a stock. One is television and other one is computer. People cannot sit continuously in front of their television as they have to go for their work. Now other way is computer. people who are working in service industries do have access to the computers but most of the time either these kind of site are blocked or their Boss will mind if he finds his subordinate doing it . Now it is another case if boss himself is doing
trading in his chamber :)..
So which is the technology which can be kept most of the time . Well it is our Mobile phone. Easy to carry and access. People would be able to access even they are travelling in metro trains or sitting in their office. What require is to get subscription of stock prices from news channel ( like CNBC Avaz or NDTV profit ..) .People are not interested in seeing the face of Udayan Mukherjee which takes most of the band width. People are only interested in his idea's or people want to listen expert’s comments, they are not at all interested in their faces. What they want to see is the stock prices. Which can be shown on the screen of mobile phone ,It can be shown like the way it is telecasted in television ( in a continuous scroll) and expert’s voice can be listen through ear phone. So overall we need to have two things
1. Stock prices and views of experts which can be subscribed from
various news channels
2. Band -width
i dont know why any news channel is not doing this or they are waiting for 3-G to come which is not required at all, whatever would be the reason, they are missing a huge opportunity to earn profit
I want to use FM for trading . We have seen that as Indian economy is growing, more and more people are getting involved in trading . But main problem in trading is that we need to have continue access to the market price of particular script and it is impossible for a working class professional. Basically as on today there are only two popular sources are available to know the share price of a stock. One is television and other one is computer. People cannot sit continuously in front of their television as they have to go for their work. Now other way is computer. people who are working in service industries do have access to the computers but most of the time either these kind of site are blocked or their Boss will mind if he finds his subordinate doing it . Now it is another case if boss himself is doing
trading in his chamber :)..
So which is the technology which can be kept most of the time . Well it is our Mobile phone. Easy to carry and access. People would be able to access even they are travelling in metro trains or sitting in their office. What require is to get subscription of stock prices from news channel ( like CNBC Avaz or NDTV profit ..) .People are not interested in seeing the face of Udayan Mukherjee which takes most of the band width. People are only interested in his idea's or people want to listen expert’s comments, they are not at all interested in their faces. What they want to see is the stock prices. Which can be shown on the screen of mobile phone ,It can be shown like the way it is telecasted in television ( in a continuous scroll) and expert’s voice can be listen through ear phone. So overall we need to have two things
1. Stock prices and views of experts which can be subscribed from
various news channels
2. Band -width
i dont know why any news channel is not doing this or they are waiting for 3-G to come which is not required at all, whatever would be the reason, they are missing a huge opportunity to earn profit
equity market for the Bollywood industry
Some days ago I had a interesting conversation with one of my friends and he put forward an idea which I think is worth sharing. I am not aware of the legal and financial implications of that idea but I think when the idea is strong, regulations can be dealt with, easily (otherwise what is the use of lawyers and CA’sJ).
This idea relates to film industry. We all tend to have a preconceived notion that if a movie has a great actor( Amir khan), actress ( ash) , play back singer(Lata Mangeshkar), musician (A.R. Rahman), lyrics composer (Guljaar) ,Director (asutosh gowariker) and a great team then that movie would definitely be a super hit ( I have heard many people predicting that a movie would be a great success just because it has Aamir Khan in it, and its true most of the times too!). Also if people are asked to bet on that movie then they will definitely go for it. So why can’t a producer hire Amir khan, Lata Mangeshkar, A.R. Rahman, Asutosh gowariker etc? Well, the answer is very simple and it is “ the Budget” ( Where is the money? ). Hiring the above said people will make the total cost around Rs 200 Cr. But once a producer has these personalities in the movie, a lot of people would be interested in betting on the movie.
So here opens the equity market for the Bollywood industry. People want to play big bet on the movie which they think will definitely be super hit and want to share some profit margin earned by the producer. But with a small amount in hand, they are not capable of investing their money in the movie. In the current scenario when the film producers are not finding it easy to raise money through debt or borrowing, there is a huge opportunity to involve these people into movie making. A film producer can issue an initial public offer (IPO) for his movie, once his team is ready. He can invest the amount he is capable of investing and the rest can be raised from the market. People will subscribe for the public offer based on the team members. Once the movie is released, revenue would be divided based on the no of shares held. Every month, revenue can be shared among the shareholders and the promoters. This is how both the parties can achieve their desired goal. I accept that there are many pit-falls in this concept like transparency (which actor would disclose his signing amount?), promoter’s honesty, etc. But I think once the idea is strong we can find out the way to deal with these pit-falls. After all, we shouldn’t forget that ‘an Idea can change our life’J.
This idea relates to film industry. We all tend to have a preconceived notion that if a movie has a great actor( Amir khan), actress ( ash) , play back singer(Lata Mangeshkar), musician (A.R. Rahman), lyrics composer (Guljaar) ,Director (asutosh gowariker) and a great team then that movie would definitely be a super hit ( I have heard many people predicting that a movie would be a great success just because it has Aamir Khan in it, and its true most of the times too!). Also if people are asked to bet on that movie then they will definitely go for it. So why can’t a producer hire Amir khan, Lata Mangeshkar, A.R. Rahman, Asutosh gowariker etc? Well, the answer is very simple and it is “ the Budget” ( Where is the money? ). Hiring the above said people will make the total cost around Rs 200 Cr. But once a producer has these personalities in the movie, a lot of people would be interested in betting on the movie.
So here opens the equity market for the Bollywood industry. People want to play big bet on the movie which they think will definitely be super hit and want to share some profit margin earned by the producer. But with a small amount in hand, they are not capable of investing their money in the movie. In the current scenario when the film producers are not finding it easy to raise money through debt or borrowing, there is a huge opportunity to involve these people into movie making. A film producer can issue an initial public offer (IPO) for his movie, once his team is ready. He can invest the amount he is capable of investing and the rest can be raised from the market. People will subscribe for the public offer based on the team members. Once the movie is released, revenue would be divided based on the no of shares held. Every month, revenue can be shared among the shareholders and the promoters. This is how both the parties can achieve their desired goal. I accept that there are many pit-falls in this concept like transparency (which actor would disclose his signing amount?), promoter’s honesty, etc. But I think once the idea is strong we can find out the way to deal with these pit-falls. After all, we shouldn’t forget that ‘an Idea can change our life’J.
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